Breaking — September 12, 2026. Just days after the heaviest tanker exchange of the war in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran-backed Houthi fighters completed their takeover of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline on September 11, seizing the islands at the narrowest point of the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints are now effectively under the influence of the Iran-aligned axis at the same time — arguably the most significant strategic shift since the war began in February. This report cross-references Al Jazeera with ＡＦＰ, ＣＮＮ, Fox News and ＢＢＣ coverage, official statements from Washington and Tehran, and President Trump's social media posts, and adds context on Iran's collapsing economy, its rising friction with Gulf states, and the state of ceasefire diplomacy.
Houthis Complete Takeover of the Red Sea Coast and Bab al-Mandeb
🟢 [Confirmed by multiple sources] According to ＡＦＰ, Yemen's Houthi movement seized Mayyun Island (also known as Perim), which sits in the middle of the Bab al-Mandeb shipping lane, on September 11, completing their control of the strait's coastal area. This followed the capture of the port city of Mokha a day earlier, and the fighters went on to take the town of Dhubab along with the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands and Zuqar Island in the southern Red Sea.
🟢 [Confirmed by multiple sources] Al Jazeera reported that Houthi forces now control the entirety of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, reaching all the way to the Bab al-Mandeb gateway, calling it the most significant regional development since the United States and Israel declared war on Iran in February. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government has attempted to counter-attack near Mokha but has so far failed to reverse the losses.
🟡 [Single source / official claim] Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, told ＡＦＰ that "the Iranians don't only control Hormuz and the Strait of Hormuz, but they control the other most strategic chokepoint in the Middle East." Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, congratulated the Houthis on their "resounding victory," suggesting Tehran views this as a major strategic win.
🟡 [Single source / official claim] A Houthi politburo member, Hazem al-Assad, sought to reassure international shippers, telling Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that "freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab are safe and orderly" and that "there is no cause for international concern." Given the Houthis' repeated strikes on Saudi-linked tankers since July, that reassurance should be treated with caution rather than taken at face value.
What the Fall of a "Second Chokepoint" Really Means
🔵 [Editorial analysis] The Red Sea route had served as the Gulf producers' fallback after the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and Saudi Arabia in particular had leaned on it to keep oil flowing. With Bab al-Mandeb now compromised as well, that fallback option is disappearing — raising the prospect that the world's largest oil exporter could effectively be squeezed from both directions at once.
🟢 [Confirmed by multiple sources] Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, and the average U.S. diesel price topped $6 a gallon for the first time on record. According to the United Nations' migration agency, more than 46,000 people have been displaced by the past week's intensified fighting alone, and the fragile truce that had largely held since 2022 now appears to be collapsing.
🟢 [Confirmed by multiple sources] The United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session on Yemen on September 10 following the fall of Mokha. Yemen's internationally recognized National Defense Council said it was on the front line defending freedom of navigation, and called on the Security Council and Red Sea coastal states to prevent the strait's islands and coastline from being turned into leverage for blackmail or a platform for threats to international shipping.
Tanker War Still Raging in the Strait of Hormuz
🟢 [Confirmed by multiple sources] Just before the Bab al-Mandeb takeover, the Strait of Hormuz saw the war's largest wave of tanker attacks between September 5 and 9. American forces disabled three Iranian crude oil tankers, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (ＩＲＧＣ) claimed strikes on six U.S.-linked vessels and tankers combined, and on September 9 Iran said it had struck ten ships in a single day.
🟡 [Single source / official claim] U.S. Central Command (ＣＥＮＴＣＯＭ) commander Admiral Brad Cooper warned that "if you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost — taking out three of yours," while flatly denying the ＩＲＧＣ's claim of hits on American warships, stating no U.S. vessel was struck and "all ＩＲＧＣ attempts failed." Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, declared that "the era of proportionate responses is over," signaling an even harsher retaliatory posture.
Trump on Social Media: "The War Will End After the Midterms"
🟢 [Confirmed by multiple sources] Speaking at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on September 9, President Trump said "the war will be over very shortly after the election," accusing Iran of "hanging out for dear life, hoping we lose, so they can deal with dumb, weak Democrats and get their nuclear bomb." He also revived his proposal to rename the Strait of Hormuz the "Trump Strait."
🟡 [Single source / official claim] On his Truth Social platform, Trump has repeatedly predicted gas prices will fall sharply once the U.S. "wins," yet the national average gasoline price has climbed to roughly $4.22 a gallon, and diesel — as noted above — has just broken $6 for the first time. With the Bab al-Mandeb setback now added to the mix, the gap between that optimistic messaging and market reality is likely to widen further.
🔵 [Editorial analysis] Trump's shift from dismissing the conflict as "a little excursion" or "not a big thing" to openly calling it a "war" reflects how the administration's own framing has wavered as the six-month conflict drags on. The emergence of a second front in the Red Sea gives that uncertainty even more room to grow.
Iran's Economy on the Brink: Currency Collapse and Runaway Inflation
🟢 [Confirmed by multiple sources] The International Monetary Fund (ＩＭＦ) estimates Iran's economy will contract by 6.1% in 2026, with inflation reaching 68.9%. The rial has fallen to roughly 2.8 million to the dollar on the free market, against an official rate of about 1.6 million — an extreme and widening dual exchange-rate gap.
| Indicator | Value (as of September 2026) |
| Real ＧＤＰ growth (ＩＭＦ estimate) | -6.1% |
| Inflation rate (ＩＭＦ estimate) | Approx. 68.9% |
| Rial, free-market rate | ~2.8 million per dollar |
| Rial, official rate | ~1.6 million per dollar |
| Oil price (post Bab al-Mandeb takeover) | Above $100 / barrel |
🟡 [Single source / official claim] Iran's central bank governor insists reserves "have not been frozen" and that foreign currency access remains stable, but residents in Tehran told Reuters that food and essential-goods prices have risen roughly 40% since the war began — suggesting official inflation figures understate the real hardship. Insiders close to the establishment reportedly view the economy as the regime's greatest vulnerability.
Rising Friction With the Gulf States
🟢 [Confirmed by multiple sources] Every Gulf Cooperation Council (ＧＣＣ) member except Oman has come under Iranian attack since the war began. Bahrain's ambassador to the United Nations said ＧＣＣ states have collectively intercepted more than 950 missiles, over 2,500 drones and 17 aircraft. The United Arab Emirates (ＵＡＥ), which has absorbed the most attacks of any ＧＣＣ member, has taken the most defiant posture toward Iran, while Saudi Arabia has called for de-escalation while backing Pakistan-mediated talks — a visible split in how Gulf capitals are responding.
🔵 [Editorial analysis] With the Red Sea — the alternative to a blocked Hormuz — now also falling under Houthi control, Saudi Arabia no longer has the luxury of a relaxed, wait-and-see posture within the ＧＣＣ. With its own export lifeline threatened from two directions at once, Riyadh's stance is likely to harden further in the weeks ahead.
Where Peace Talks Stand: Why the Islamabad Memorandum Collapsed
🟢 [Confirmed by multiple sources] The United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum on June 17, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, covering a permanent ceasefire across all fronts and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz among other terms. The memorandum lapsed unextended on August 17; Trump ordered his envoys to halt contact on August 18, and by September 2 he said he was setting aside the idea of a deal altogether.
🟡 [Single source / official claim] Trump told reporters on September 9 that "we're not looking for it, to be honest," referring to a deal, adding that Iran has "very little country left right now." Mediation efforts through Oman, Pakistan, Iraq and Qatar continue without result, and the fall of the Red Sea front makes any resumption of talks look even less likely in the near term.
Editorial Note — No Deference, No Spin
🔵 [Editorial analysis] The simultaneous compromise of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb is not simply a regional conflict widening — it marks a structural shift in the world's energy transport network. While President Trump talks about a war ending "after the election," the front lines on the ground keep expanding, and even the fallback routes are disappearing. The gap between a U.S. administration prioritizing its political calendar and an Iran-aligned axis racking up military gains despite economic collapse is only likely to grow. Readers should recognize how directly this dynamic could hit their own wallets — at the gas pump and in shipping costs alike.
