October 26, 2026 Breaking News | Trump: "Make a Deal or Finish Them Off?" — No Iran Strike Today, Focus Shifts to After Midterms

Reference time: October 26, 2026, 06:32 (ＪＳＴ) / updated 09:14 (ＪＳＴ) — A roundup of the Iran–United States war, the Strait of Hormuz, and the fighting between Yemen's Houthis and Saudi Arabia, built around Al Jazeera reporting and cross-checked against American, European, Middle Eastern and Iranian media.

🔵 How to read the credibility labels: 🟢 = confirmed by multiple sources / 🟡 = single source or an official claim by a party to the conflict / 🔵 = editorial analysis. Labels appear at the start of each paragraph. Dates follow local reporting; where a time is known, Japan Standard Time (ＪＳＴ) is added.

Key Points

Topic	Latest
Washington	President Trump ruled out a strike "today" on October 25, but framed his choice as "make a deal" or "finish them off."
Tehran	Foreign Minister Araghchi: "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same." The military says American warships will not be allowed into the Persian Gulf.
Strait of Hormuz	Traffic remains close to a standstill. Iran claims tankers hit mines; this is unconfirmed.
Houthis vs. Saudi Arabia	Ballistic missiles and drones fired at Riyadh, Mecca province and the south on October 24–25. Saudi forces intercepted most of them.
Peace talks	Qatari mediators visited Tehran in coordination with Washington. The two sides remain split over June's "Islamabad Memorandum."
Oil	Friday's settlement: Brent $116.72, ＷＴＩ $103.27 — both above $100.

Washington: Trump Says "Make a Deal or Finish Them Off"

🟢 Asked by reporters on October 25 (ＪＳＴ: 2026/10/26, early morning) whether a strike could come that Sunday, President Trump said: "Would I tell you that? But the answer is no. There will not be a strike." He was leaving the White House for a campaign rally in Michigan, according to Anadolu Agency and Russia's ＴＡＳＳ news agency.

🟡 In an interview with Fox News, Trump said: "Do I make a deal with them, or do I finish them off? That's the only question." He also claimed, "We now control the Hormuz Strait. They get nothing." Iran makes the same claim of control, so the two accounts directly contradict each other.

🟢 The comments followed remarks by Tom Barrack, the American ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, who was asked on October 23 whether a strike could happen that weekend and replied, "Absolutely." Trump appeared unaware of the remark ("That was my ambassador?"), then told a rally in Fort Myers, Florida that night (ＪＳＴ: 2026/10/24, morning): "We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree." Reuters and The Times of Israel reported the remarks.

🟢 "Operation Epic Fury" is the name of the American-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began on February 28. On October 8, Trump pledged not to attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, and he has not withdrawn that pledge.

🟢 Meanwhile, ＡＢＣ News and The New York Times reported that the American and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for a "short but intensive" round of strikes after the midterms, reportedly covering energy sites, nuclear facilities and missile and drone stockpiles. The White House said the United States "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections."

🟢 American intelligence assesses that Iran has "substantially increased" efforts to target American officials in the Middle East and beyond, with some plots at "advanced stages" (Axios, ＡＢＣ News). ＣＮＮ reported that Washington is quietly moving some diplomats and their families out of posts in Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Jordan.

Trump's Social Media Posts and Remarks

Date (ＪＳＴ)	Venue	What he said
2026/10/09	Truth Social	"Productive discussions" with Iran; the blockade stays "in full effect"; no attack before the midterms; "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon."
2026/10/22–23	Truth Social	On reports of tanker hits in Hormuz: "They are even making up fake hits, mines, and everything else," accusing Iran of pushing up oil prices before the midterms.
2026/10/24	Campaign rally, Florida	"We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree."
2026/10/25–26	Reporters / Fox News	"There will not be a strike today." "Do I make a deal with them, or do I finish them off?"

🔵 Trump's messages keep pairing strong pressure with a promise not to strike before the election. They appear aimed both at voters at home and at Tehran's negotiators, which makes it hard to read his next move from words alone.

Iran's Official Position and Military Moves

🟢 Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said at a televised event in Tehran on October 25: "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same." He argued that Washington had already tried attacking Iran twice and knew the outcome, so a third attempt would end no differently. He said shipping routes and management in the Strait of Hormuz would "no longer be the same," and that regional peace requires foreign forces to leave (ＡＢＣ Australia, The Washington Times).

🟡 According to Tasnim News Agency, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi said on October 24 (ＪＳＴ: 2026/10/24, around 15:16) that the American president can only "dream" of his forces entering the Persian Gulf again, and that Iran would bar American warships from the Gulf "under any circumstances."

🟡 Yadollah Javani, a general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (ＩＲＧＣ), told state broadcaster Al-Alam on October 21 that if the United States attacks Iran's civilian infrastructure, Iran could target undersea internet cables in the Gulf, including "seven major cables" running beneath the Strait of Hormuz (Oman Observer).

🟡 Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Gholamhossein Darzi, said Iran has neither abandoned nor suspended its nuclear safeguards obligations. Iran, Russia, China and nine other countries issued a joint statement at the United Nations saying nuclear facilities must never be attacked (Iran International).

🟡 President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to travel to Moscow this week and meet President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of a gas exporters' summit on October 27, according to Araghchi.

Strait of Hormuz: Traffic Near a Standstill, Contested Mine Claims

🟡 The International Monetary Fund's PortWatch recorded just four transits through the Strait of Hormuz on October 18, compared with a pre-crisis average of about 85 a day. As of October 24, roughly 100 vessels were holding position in and around the strait (monitoring site Straits Live).

🟡 The Revolutionary Guard navy claimed on October 24 that two supertankers carrying more than 4.5 million barrels combined hit sea mines and were disabled after using what Iran calls an "unauthorized route." No maritime authority has confirmed this. On October 22, the Guard claimed seven tankers had been struck or hit mines.

🟢 Britain's Maritime Trade Operations center (ＵＫＭＴＯ) reported that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile in the strait on the afternoon of October 23; the vessel continued to its next port (ＡＢＣ News). Al Jazeera reported that oil washed up on beaches at Umm Al Quwain in the United Arab Emirates after a tanker attack near the strait.

🟢 The United States continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran says the strait will not reopen until the blockade is lifted. More Saudi crude is now being exported via the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz.

🔵 Iran claims heavy damage to shipping, and Trump calls it "fake." With few independent confirmations, individual damage reports should be treated with caution. What multiple data sources do agree on is that traffic through the strait remains extremely low.

Houthis and Saudi Arabia: Interceptions Over the Capital and Holy Cities

🟢 Saudi-led coalition spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki al-Maliki said forces destroyed a ballistic missile and a drone aimed at Riyadh on the morning of October 25, along with a cruise missile targeting Khamis Mushait in the southwest. The coalition later reported intercepting 10 ballistic missiles fired at the south. Explosions were heard in Riyadh (Al Jazeera, ＡＦＰ, ＡＰ).

🟢 Saudi Civil Defence said falling debris over Khamis Mushait and Ahad Rafidah injured two people and damaged three homes and seven vehicles. On the evening of October 24, debris also fell around Jeddah, Taif and Rabigh in Mecca province.

🟡 Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group targeted three Saudi airports, energy installations, a pipeline and an airbase on October 24, naming Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West Pipeline. The coalition said it destroyed two missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif, but damage to oil facilities has not been confirmed. The Houthis called claims that they targeted Mecca and Medina a "huge lie."

🟢 Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, closed since a Houthi attack on October 10 that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, reopened on October 25, with international flights at Terminal 2 and domestic flights at Terminal 1. Saree called the airport a "military target" and warned airlines and travelers to stay away.

🟡 Update: ＣＢＳ News reported that the Houthis said they attacked the Riyadh airport again just hours after it reopened (ＪＳＴ: 2026/10/26, around 03:56). Saudi authorities have not confirmed damage.

🟡 Jasem Mohamed AlBudaiwi, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (ＧＣＣ), called the strikes near the holy sites "a grave violation of the sanctity of the Holy Sites." The 2027 Dakar Rally has been moved out of Saudi Arabia over security concerns.

🟢 Inside Yemen, the Houthis have besieged the southwestern city of Taiz since October 4 and on October 25 advanced on Jabal Sabr, a strategic mountain overlooking the city. Government forces said they carried out 736 strikes in 24 hours and "neutralised" 307 fighters. The United Nations warned that time is running out to reach about 800,000 people trapped in Taiz. A reported Saudi airstrike hit the Asr district of the capital, Sanaa, on October 24.

🟡 Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed the "Mecca Joint Defence Agreement" on August 7 and agreed on October 5 to speed up deployments under it. Pakistan's Foreign Office says its forces will not cross into Yemen (Al Jazeera).

Peace Talks: The Fight Over the Islamabad Memorandum

🟢 The 14-point "Islamabad Memorandum" of understanding, brokered by Pakistan in June, called for lifting the American naval blockade within 30 days, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, releasing about $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets in phases, and 60 days of further talks including on the nuclear program. The 60-day window expired in mid-August without an extension, and each side accuses the other of violations.

🟢 Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, visited Tehran on October 20 — his fifth trip since the April ceasefire — and met President Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. Pezeshkian told him Washington must remove "pressure, threats and sanctions" before negotiations can begin.

🟡 Reuters reported that Qatari mediators visited Tehran on October 25 in coordination with Washington to discuss ways to ease tensions (via ＴＡＳＳ). Araghchi said on October 21 that indirect talks through Pakistan and Qatar "remain ongoing without interruption." ＣＢＳ News reported that Iran says messages are still being passed through intermediaries and the window for diplomacy is not closed.

🟡 Iran has submitted a "seven-day plan" that would fully reopen the strait on day six; Araghchi says Washington accepted the conditions but wanted to add clauses. A source quoted by Tasnim on October 24 denied making any new proposal and rejected "any arrangement based on the equation of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the blockade," calling a Saudi Al Arabiya report a fabrication.

🔵 The core dispute is about sequence: Washington wants the nuclear issue addressed first, while Tehran wants the blockade lifted and pressure eased first. Mohsen Rezaei of Iran's Supreme National Security Council has said enriched nuclear material will not be allowed to leave the country, so the nuclear gap remains wide.

Europe: The European Union and Britain

🟢 On October 23 in Istanbul, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia met their counterparts from Britain, France, Germany and Italy for the first time. All agreed there should be no new military strike on Iran and called for the immediate, full restoration of freedom of navigation through Hormuz. The meeting produced no ceasefire, no reopening date and no binding declaration.

🟡 British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said the war had gone on too long. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot warned that renewed escalation would hit oil and gas markets hard.

🟡 European Union leaders, in the conclusions of their mid-October summit, condemned Iran's attacks on countries in the Middle East and called on Tehran and its proxies to stop. In May, the bloc adopted a legal framework allowing sanctions on those involved in impeding navigation through Hormuz.

🟡 Nour News, which is close to Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said after the Istanbul meeting that the United States and European powers must make concessions first.

Inside Iran: Economy, Society and Politics

🟡 The rial has hit record lows. On October 1, the open-market dollar reached 2,593,000 rials (more than 250,000 tomans), far above the official rate (Iran International, Fortune).

🟡 According to the Statistical Center of Iran, annual inflation stands at 73.6%, and year-on-year inflation hit a record 89.8%. Food prices are rising even faster, hitting low-income households hardest.

🟡 The central bank plans to sell up to $2 billion in cash dollars to slow the rial's slide; adults can buy up to $10,000 with a national ＩＤ card. Even the government newspaper Iran concedes the move may slow the dollar's rise but cannot reverse the trend.

🟡 Hardline lawmakers say the war accounts for no more than 25% of price rises and have threatened to impeach economic officials. Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh rejected Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's claim that the rial's collapse shows American pressure is working.

🟡 ＣＢＳ News reported that Iranians are stockpiling food and medicine in case of a return to all-out war, and that Parliament Speaker Qalibaf has called for a 10% cut in natural gas use before winter.

🔵 A weak currency and high inflation could deepen public frustration with the government. At the same time, outside pressure tends to strengthen calls for national unity, which can make Tehran less flexible at the negotiating table.

Oil Prices (Latest)

Benchmark	Price (per barrel)	Change	As of (ＪＳＴ)
Brent (global benchmark)	$116.72	+$3.55 (+3.14%)	2026/10/24, around 03:30 (Oct. 23 settlement)
ＷＴＩ (West Texas Intermediate, American crude)	$103.27	+$3.80 (+3.82%)	2026/10/24, around 03:30 (Oct. 23 settlement)
ＷＴＩ, early Monday trade	about $102.1	about −1.1%	2026/10/26, around 09:00

🟢 Brent settled on October 23 at its highest level since April 29, up about 6% on the week. ＷＴＩ is also above $100, so both benchmarks remain above the $100 mark. Settlement figures were cross-checked across OilPrice.com, Investing.com and financial news sites.

🟡 Futures reopened at 07:00 (ＪＳＴ) on October 26. In early Asian trade, ＷＴＩ was around $102, down about 1% (Investing.com). Brent quotes differ between sources at this hour — one shows about $110.6 — possibly because of a contract roll, so we treat early Brent levels as unconfirmed.

🔵 The key question for markets this week is whether the Houthis' claimed damage to oil facilities at Yanbu and Rabigh is confirmed. Prices are moving quickly, so please recheck the latest figures at the time of reading.

Dates to Watch

Date (ＪＳＴ)	Event	Why it matters
2026/10/27	Israeli general election	Trump has endorsed Prime Minister Netanyahu; the result could shape policy toward Iran.
2026/10/27	Gas exporters' summit, Moscow	Pezeshkian–Putin meeting.
2026/10/29, 03:00	Federal Reserve policy decision	How the Fed views oil-driven inflation.
2026/11/03–04	American midterm elections	End of the "no strike before the election" pledge; focus on post-election strike plans.
Late November 2026	Additional American aircraft carrier expected	A stronger American military posture in the region.

Editor's View

🔵 For now, Washington's pledge not to strike before the election acts as a brake. But reports of post-election strike plans, Trump's "deal or finish them off" framing and Tehran's hard line all point to rising tension heading into November 3.

🔵 On the diplomatic side, Qatar and Pakistan are mediating, and the Turkey-led Istanbul meeting adds more voices against a new strike. The negotiations increasingly come down to the order of steps: lifting the blockade, reopening the strait, and the nuclear file.

🔵 The Houthi–Saudi war is escalating as a separate front. Attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities affect not only oil prices but also aviation and logistics, so it is worth watching alongside developments in the Gulf.

Main Sources

This article is based on publicly available reporting. The situation and prices change quickly; please check the latest announcements from each news organization.